Yesterday, Shams Charania reported that the Lakers had turned down a trade offer revolving around Russell Westbrook and unprotected picks in 2027 and 2029 for the Pacers center Myles Turner and guard Buddy Hield. Lots of people were shocked to hear that the Lakers were turning this deal down. On paper, both Turner and Hield are great fits for the Lakers so why did the Lakers turn down the deal? Can the Lakers really find a better deal somewhere out there?
What the Lakers are looking for
LeBron is entering his 20th year in the league and the formula for winning with LeBron is clear: surround LeBron with shooting, defense and a secondary ball handler. The Heatles won using this exact formula. One of the Heat’s most deadly lineups was LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Shane Battier and Ray Allen. All of those guys were a threat from the 3 point line, each of them except Allen were good defenders and Wade was able to take a lot of the playmaking load off of LeBron. When LeBron won with the Cavs it was the same. The go to lineup for the championship Cavs was LeBron, Kyrie, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson and one of JR Smith/Iman Shumpert/Mathew Dellavadova. All of those guys except Thompson can shoot the hell out of the ball, they are all league average or better defenders when they try and Kyrie is best as a secondary ball handler. Finally, when LeBron won with the Lakers their go to lineup was LeBron, AD, KCP, Kyle Kuzma/Alex Caurso and Danny Green. Again all of those guys are good defenders, they can all shoot the ball but there was not really a secondary creator. After the Lakers won those finals, they have been on a manhunt to find that secondary creator to put with LeBron and the reasoning is solid. LeBron has struggled to win at the highest level without a secondary ball handler and especially as he gets older he needs someone who can carry that load for him during the regular season. Thus spawned the belief in Dennis Schroeder as the answer, thus spawned the desire to trade for Westbrook and ultimately here we land in endless Lakers trade discussions.
Do Buddy Hield and Myles Turner Fit the Bill?
Now that we have a clear understanding of what the Lakers are looking for and why that actually makes a lot of sense, let’s find out if Hield and Turner would fill those holes.
Buddy Hield
Buddy is one of the best shooters in the league and it is not debatable. Last season was a bit of a down year for Buddy but he is a career 40% 3 point shooter on 7.5 attempts a game. Okay but what does that actually mean? Last year about 20 players attempted 7.5 3s a game. Of those 20 players, ZERO of them (including Buddy) shot 40% from 3. Lamelo, Evan Fournier, Trae, CJ McCollum, and Steph were the only players in the entire league to shoot 38% or better on 7.5 or more attempts. In other words, if Buddy shot his career average from 3 last year then he would have been the best shooter in the league (statistically speaking). Buddy 100% fits the bill of putting shooting around LeBron.
But it’s unclear if Buddy provides anything to a team other than elite 3 point shooting. In terms of being a secondary ball handler, that is not the player that anyone wants Buddy to be. Any team with Buddy wants him flying around picks and putting up quick three pointers. Buddy is best waiting in the corner for someone to dish him a pass and watch and wait as Buddy makes it splash. Over his career, Buddy averages 2.8 assists on 1.8 turnovers. Giving him an assist to turnover ratio of 1.55. Elite playmakers tend to have a high number of raw assists, such as LeBron who averages 7.5 per game, and/or have a high assist to turnover ratio, such as Patrick Beverly who had a ratio of 3.4 last year (11th best in the league).
In terms of defense, it remains to be seen if Buddy could be an average defender. I could point to the advanced stats that have Buddy as a clearly bad defender or even pull up clips of him forgetting about his assignment but I don’t think thats fair to Buddy. Here are the final wins for Buddy’s teams in his 6 year career: 31, 27, 39, 31, 31, 26. There are very few players in the NBA that try hard on defense when they are playing for losing teams. Buddy has a lot of the characteristics to be an okay defender: he is semi-quick, he is strong and has a 6’9” wingspan. It is certainly possible that Buddy would be a passable defender on a good team but there also little to no evidence of him being that guy in the NBA.
Final Judgment: excellent shooting, hopefully mediocre defense, no playmaking
Myles Turner
By far the most interesting question surrounding Myles Turner is his shooting. Here are his 3 point numbers from his rookie season to now:
His 4th season at 38.8% appears to be a bit of fools gold given that it was only on 2.6 attempts per game. Since Turner has shot a decent volume (4 or more), his average is clearly more around 33-34% which is right below league average (35-36%). Can you really trust Turner to knock down 3s in big games? If I am the coach of an opposing team in the playoffs I am going to leave Turner wide open and let his shooting beat me. This was essentially the Bucks strategy against the Bulls this postseason– leave Vooch wide open and wait patiently for the rebound on the clank. The Bulls lost in 5.
The flip side to all of this is that Turner’s questionable three point shooting still makes him one of the best three point shooting centers in the league. Here is the list of centers who shot above 35% on 2+ attempts a game: Brook Lopez, Jonas Valančiūnas, Embiid, Mo Bamba, KAT and Mike Muscala. Turner, in a semi down season on a decent volume, still had the 10th best 3% for a center (this is excluding Muscala who I don’t really consider a center or care about). If you put Turner in an offense with AD and LeBron you don’t think that he is going to get a lot more good looks and his 3P% will go up?
Turner is one of the top rim protectors in the league and is in constant contention for the blocks title. For a 7 footer, he is about as switchy as they come and is a solid defender in pick and roll situations. I have some hesitations about Turner’s ability to defend post scorers like Jokic or Embiid but that would be the beauty in pairing Turner with AD. The Lakers defense with AD and Turner would probably look a lot like the Bucks’ or the Celtics’ defenses. The Bucks and Celtics essentially have two big man rim protectors on the court in crucial situations. The basic idea is that one rim protector (Lopez and Horford) waits at the hoop to slow the play down, opening up the opportunity for the second springy and long defender (Giannis and Robert Williams) to swoop in and get blocks. It would be an absolute joy to watch Turner swoop in from the wing and spike the ball into the stands.
Turner provides little to no playing making (a negative assist:turnover ratio) which who cares, he is not that guy. That said, there are certainly times in which Turner’s basketball IQ seems to be lacking and can break the rhythm in a flowing offense. That, however, seems like an issue that can be solved with good coaching and a clearly defined role.
Final Judgment: excellent defense, questionable shooting, 0 play making
So why did the Lakers turn the deal down?
The way I see it, there are three reasons why the Lakers turned this deal down. First, neither player provides any playmaking or secondary ball handling skills. If the Schroeder and Westbrook sagas tell us one thing, it’s that the Lakers are dead set on finding a secondary ball handler to pair with LeBron. If the Lakers made this trade then their team is set, there are no more assets to trade away, there is no hope of finding that secondary ball handling star. A supporter of this trade would point out that Patrick Beverly, Dennis Schroeder or Kendrick Nunn could be that playmaker for the Lakers but maybe that’s not enough. Second, the Lakers don’t view either of Hield or Turner as having untapped potential, both of them will arrive to the Lakers as finished products who are not stars. There is no chance that either of these guys blossoms into an all-NBA player when they get to the Lakers. If the Lakers historically want one thing, its star power. Third, the Lakers believe that there is a better deal out there, they believe there is a potential deal that will land them shooting, defense and playmaking.
But what is that deal?
Free agency and a trade are the two obvious paths that the Lakers could take to find that player. The idea with free agency is that Westbrook is on an expiring deal meaning that if they don’t trade him then they could sign a max player in the offseason. Perhaps Kyrie will finally say goodbye to the Nets and join his old friend LeBron in LA. In that world, the Lakers would be looking at a star player who does all three of those key things and hey they still have their 2027 and 2029 first round picks. They might even be able to package those picks together to acquire another awesome player and boom now we are in business. The problem there being that the three behemoth contracts of Kyrie, LeBron and AD would leave them little to no cap room to acquire another player in a trade. Additionally, it would essentially mean that you are punting a LeBron season at the tender age of 37 years old.
In terms of trades, the idea for the Lakers is essentially that there is going to be some team this season that realizes they need to go the tank route. Who are this year’s Blazers that got some bad luck and are looking for a mulligan of a year so they can retool and land a top pick in the draft? There are so many teams this year that are expecting to make the playoffs that it’s practically inevitable that some team will not be close to expectations by the trade deadline. So here are a few random trade ideas I came up with. I don’t think there is a deal out there that is clearly better for the Lakers than the Pacers deal and that the other team would agree to. So, instead of arguing each trade against the Pacers’ offer (which I think is a good offer) I’ll let the reader decide if any of these deals tickles their fancy. Feel free to just scroll through and read the descriptions only of the ones that interest you.
5 Potential Deals
1. Lakers get: DeMar and Vooch
Bulls get: Westbrook, 2027 first and 2029 first
Why the Lakers do it- DeMar is a certified bucket who can generate his own offense and take that much needed playmaking responsibility off of LeBron. He is not a plus defender but he is serviceable. The same can be said for DeMar’s shooting. Vooch is one of those rare big men that can actually shoot the ball (kind of) and could make out for a really nice rotation with AD that would keep the team afloat when LeBron and AD rest. If I am the Lakers, I might pull the Bulls’ leg and see if there is some way I can get Caruso as well.
Why the Bulls do it– Imagine this dark timeline: Lonzo has yet to return from injury and Lavine’s knee is still flaring up and Demar broke his toe in a freak bowling accident. The deadline is approaching and the Bulls are the 10th seed in the East and the prospect of making the playoffs is thin. The Vooch experiment hasn’t been working and they don’t want to re-sign him in the offseason. Demar will never have more value and flipping two 30+ vets for juicy unprotected firsts is a pretty sweet deal. The Bulls view the picks as ammo for a future deal to help them re-tool around Lonzo/Lavine/PWill. Main problem with this is that the Bulls owe their pick to the Magic but the pick is top 4 protected.
2. Lakers get: Gordon Hayward, Mason Plumlee and P.J. Washington
Hornets get: Wesbrook, 2027 first and 2029 first
Why the Lakers do it- Gordon Hayward is maybe the only player that will tick all three boxes at a high level. Over the last 3 seasons, Hayward is shooting nearly 40% from 3 on 4.5 attempts to pair with about 4 assists. Hayward is no stud defender but he is a plus out there. The concern with Hayward, however, is if he can stay on the floor. Mason Plumlee is just in there as salary filler but perhaps he could get some end of the bench minutes. PJ Washington adds shooting and defense on the wing. I mean what team in the NBA doesn’t want a 23 year old player who shoots 37.5% from 3 (4.5 attempts) with a 7 foot 2 wingspan? That is the most desirable asset in the league. Pat Bev/Hayward/LeBron/Washington/AD would be an insane lineup really on both ends of the floor.
Why the Hornets do it- The Hornets are a clear candidate to take a step back this season. Miles Bridges has quickly gone from breakout season, potential max player to maybe facing time behind bars for assaulting his partner. With a competitive East it might be best for the Hornets to take the year off, tank to the bottom of the league and get a top pick who they can pair with LaMelo. Additionally, most teams around the league view Hayward as a negative asset on that fat deal. This trade would get big money off the books a year earlier for the Hornets. As I see it, the Hornets are headed nowhere fast and need to start building their franchise around LaMelo. They are soon going to be faced with the same problems Dallas has with Luka: no way to get a second star and a diminishing amount of assets. Not only would this make the Hornets worse this year but it would also stock them up with amazing trade bait for another star. If I’m the Hornets, I call the Lakers asking if we can do Rozier instead of Washington. If I’m the Lakers, I just ask if Rozier can be thrown into the deal with Washington and Hayward (which does work out salary wise). Maybe the Hornets have their eyes on freeing up the books and making moves in free agency and want to get out of Rozier’s deal. If the Lakers could finagle all three of Rozier, Washington and Hayward I think it would clearly be better than the Pacers’ offer.
3. Lakers get: CP3, Saric, Cam Johnson
Suns get: Wesbrook, 2027 first and 2029 first (YOU GUESSED IT)
Why the Lakers do it- CP3, despite his advanced age, is by far the best player I have the Lakers receiving in any of these trades. He is the point god himself, an excellent shooter (he shot 31.% from 3 last year, odd) and still one of the better small guard defenders in the league. Additionally, Cam Johson is a plus defender with size and a smooth jumper. Saric also is a nice guy to have at the end of your bench but he was mainly thrown in to make the money work.
Why the Suns do it- The Suns are one of my top candidates for the bottom to just completely fall out. From the historically bad game 7 loss to the Mavericks in the second round to ongoing resentment from Deandre Ayton to the full scale sale of the team because the owner is a racist and a sexist to the loss to a freaking Australian League team in the preseason, all the breadcrumbs lead to disaster. What happens if the Suns start out the season 10-25? At what point will the Suns face the hard truth that CP3 has 1 maybe 2 more good seasons left in him? What plans are in place for the Suns to rebuild around Devin Booker? This trade would lay out a clear roadmap to retooling for the Suns. Take a mulligan on the year, land a top pick in this year’s stacked draft and then put together a package of picks for the next disgruntled star. I actually love this deal for the Suns.
4. Lakers get: Al Horford, Grant Williams, Malcolm Brogdon
Celtics get: Westbrook, 2027, 2029
Why the Lakers do it- The Brogdon breakdown is pretty much the same as Hayward. 3s, playmaking, defense and injuries. The Lakers take a chance that he will be healthy giving them exactly what they need. It’s unlikely that Horford will play to the same level that he did last season but he is still going to be a serviceable big that can play key minutes. I might be the president of the Grant Williams fan club. He defended Giannis better than anyone that I have seen. He is streaky from the 3 point line but the potential is certainly there. He is a good young player that fills the 3 and D wing role. The Lakers would get three players they can trust in the playoffs out of this deal which would be huge.
Why the Celtics do it- The reasoning here is very similar to the Suns above. The Celtics have a lot of signs that the year from hell is coming for them (the Udoka situation and the injuries to Robert Williams and Gallo). This will be the last time Al Horford could net you anything in a trade. The Celtics gave up very little for an often injured and always aging Brogdon. Yes, it would hurt to lose a talented young player in Williams but he is not going to become a star. Sometimes, however, you have to take a step back to take two steps forward. The Celtics could call up a team with a disgruntled star and offer 2024-2027 firsts (with a swap in between cuz rules) and then the two Lakers firsts? That’s nice, that was how much the Cavs paid for Mitchell. But this would also be groundhog’s day for the Celtics– hoarding assets while Tatum and Brown reach new heights except this time they are in their primes.
5. Lakers get: Doug McDermott, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl
Spurs get: Westbrook and the firsts
Why the Lakers do it- Keldon Johnson has a 6’9” wingspan and shot 40% from 3 on 5.3 threes last year, the dude fits the exact mold of the type of NBA player you want on your team. He has high defensive upside and has shown that he can do a thing or two off the dribble. Johnson is also on a team friendly deal of less than 4 years 80 million with a decrease each year. Oh, and Johnson is only 22 years old. McDermott is an excellent shooter and while his foot speed hinders him on defense, he still has a high basketball IQ which can cover for some missing parts of his defensive game. Jakob Poeltl is an excellent rebounder, rim protector and low post defender. AD has said many times that he prefers to play alongside a traditional center and that’s exactly what Poeltl is. Earlier, I broke down how the Celtics and Bucks use two rim protectors to help them become menaces on defense and that would be true of a Poeltl-AD pairing. In this trade, the Lakers get three guys who can play in your rotation. This trade gives the Lakers a lot of lineup and playstyle flexibility.
Why the Spurs do it- It’s midseason and the Spurs find themselves winning too many games and know that they cannot miss out on the chance for Victor Wembanyama. Poeltl was available at last year’s deadline which indicates that the Spurs might not be too thrilled about giving Poeltl a new contract when this season is up. Poeltl is also 26 years old and might not fit the timeline of the new look Spurs. I would be shocked if McDermott is playing for the Spurs by the end of the season. He is a 30 year old dude who is not really on a good contract and all he serves to do is make you win a few more games. Keldon Johnson is the only player I think the Spurs would have a really hard time parting with. As I said before, I think the dude is a stud and the exact mold of a player that you want in today’s NBA. But the Lakers are giving up two really amazing picks and it could really be worth it if the Spurs want to get a star player through trade or in the draft.
The Reedbound 