4 weeks in and we can finally start to make sense of who is underperforming and who is exceeding expectations. The Blazers have come out with a blazing start and it has everyone around the league asking the same question: are the Blazers for real?
The Blazers are off to a 7-3 start and that’s with Dame missing a few games so it seems like the answer should be an obvious yes. That said, it’s important to remember just how deceiving the beginning of the season can be. After 10 games last year, the Washington Wizards were 7-3 while the Celtics were 4-6. Wes Unseld jr. looked like a top choice for coach of the year and people were starting to wonder if the Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum duo could ever work. Oh… how things change…
Let’s take a closer look at the Blazers to see if they are for real.
The Reedbound Preseason Opinion
Obviously there are flaws with Vegas lines, but it seems like the most objective way of defining a team’s expectations for the season. So when I say the Blazers are “for real” I mean they will hit the Vegas total wins over and make the playoffs.
I proudly bet the Blazers OVER on 39 wins prior to the start of the season. Bill Simmons and my group chat were clowning me but I think was clear the over would hit.
My initial optimism about this team stems from three factors. First, Dame is that dude. Let’s just take a quick look at all the Blazers’ records since Dame’s rookie year:
2021-2022: Blazers finished 27-55 and injured Dame only played 29 games
2020-2021: 42-30
2019-2020: 35-39 on a team where Hassan Whiteside and 35 year old Melo came third and fourth in total minutes played
2018-2019: 53-29
2017-2018: 49-33
2016-2017: 41-41 this is the only real mark but Allen Crabbe, Mo can’t find a team Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu were 3 through 5 in total minutes
2015-2016: 44-38
2014-2015: 51-31
2013-2014: 54-28
The 19-20 season was the only time a healthy Dame team finished with a below .500 record. Of the 12 players on that team that played 500 or more minutes, 8 of the players are not in the league anymore! That was only 3 years ago!
Which leads me to my second point, the “supporting cast” is actually pretty good this year! A great way to evaluate a team is to think about how many guys on the team would for sure be in the 8 man rotation of a deep playoff team. If you have 6 guys that would for sure make ANY team’s rotation and at least 2 maybes then your team has adequate depth.
Here are the 6 for sure guys:
1. Dame
2. Jerami Grant An excellent defender across multiple positions, can create his own shot a bit and provides reliable shooting.
3. Josh Hart is quietly one of the best positional rebounders getting almost 9 boards a game despite being 6’4”. He is a decent defender and can’t be left wide open. Every team wants a 3 and D wing and Hart offers that plus rebounding.
4. Anfernee Under the Radar Simons shot 40% from 3 on 8 attempts last season and that’s playing most of the year without Dame. That is top level shooting and while his defense has been iffy at times, he has made some strides this year. Every team needs a marksman.
5. Jusuf Nurkic solid, do it all big who would at least slot in as an overqualified version of Kevon Looney/Zubac.
6. Gary Patyon II he has yet to play for the Blazers this year but he had a role on the championship Warriors.
The Maybes:
1. Justice Winslow- There is a reason the Celtics offered the Heat FOUR picks for this guy on draft night and the Heat said NO– he has all the tools to be awesome. Winslow’s career hasn’t gone as planned but right now he is a solid defender with a high basketball IQ. His shooting has wavered from average to awful hence the maybe.
2. Nassir Little- I love the energy this guy plays with and think the Blazers got a total steal on him at 4/28 mil. Total sparkplug young guy off the bench that might be able to shoot
3. Shaedon Sharpe- THE ROOKIE BAYBEE HE LOOKS LIKE A STUD!!! I’m super high on this guy and I think he is going to be a star. The scoop on him is that he was the number 1 prospect and he graduated high school a year early and redshirted all year last year at Kentucky. In the offseason, the Blazers hired Mike Schmitz, who was ESPN’s top draft guy and has an extremely impressive track record evaluating propects, to be their Assistant General Manager. I really believe that there were little to no people who knew more about Sharpe than Schmitz and I trust his judgment. So far, so good. Th
The last reason I liked the Blazers before the season: Billups was unfairly written off as a bad coach. I really don’t care what coach you put on that Blazers team last year because they were going to suck without Dame (and CJ) no matter what. So really anyone making claims about Billups were just making shit up because next to no one was breaking down the Xs and Os decisions on last year’s openly tanking team.
I do know that Billups was a super high IQ guy when he was a player, that I liked his opinions when he was a media member and that he was respected enough by people around the league to get interviews for GM jobs. That, to me, is much better evidence than “Blazers won 29 games, Chauncey sucks”.
How the Blazers have Actually Looked
Billups has been running some fun and creative sets for the Blazers to start out the season. Take this one early in the game against the Nuggets. Nurkic is a talented passer for a big so getting him the ball at the top of the key essentially allows the Blazers to play 5 out. Nurk looks like he is going to hand the ball off to Grant which captures KCP’s attention for just long enough for Dame to get a step on him and execute a perfect cut. Its important to note that there is no one waiting for Dame at the rim because everyone on the Blazers has to be respected as a shooter.
In the Grizzlies game, the Blazers ran the same concept but instead of passing to a cutter Nurk actually screened for the guy coming from the corner. This helped Sharpe to get a pretty open long 2 that he ultimately missed. Rookie mistake not running a bit wider to get outside the 3 point line.
The same concept with Nurk directing traffic from the three point line. This time Nurk finds a cutting Hart, forcing Grant’s man to come and help, Hart fakes a shot at the rim which collapses the D even more, Morant smartly slides over to Grant, Grant fakes the shot and probably should have passed earlier but still finds the wide open Nurk from 3 who makes the Grizz pay. Just top notch design and execution.
The Stats
Nothing about the Blazers’ stats scream phony or lucky. Sometimes you will see a team who is shooting 50% from 3 and holding their opponents to 25% from 3 and that is just unsustainable. And yes team 3 point shooting is that important. Its rare that a team shooters better from 3 and loses the game.
Anyways, at +3.4 the Blazers are 7th in net rating. Teams are not shooting a crazy low % from 3 against them randomly or something. The Blazers have gotten some luck on opponent 3 point % but nothing extreme. More importantly, the Blazer’s defense strategy has been to limit shots from 3 and allow guys to drive into the paint. The Blazers are letting up the 3rd most shots at the rim which is semi concerning. But, opponent fg% at the rim is still around league average, thanks largely to Nurkic’s underrated rim protection.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Blazers have the 5th best 3 point shooting in the league which seems sustainable given that they have two of the best shooters in the league with Simons and Dame. The Blazers are 29th in 3 point attempts which is semi-concerning.
Generally, phony teams have really close wins or have opponents randomly shooting awfully against them. Both the stats and the on court product support that the Blazers are a for real playoff team! Fun! This team is a joy to watch with a high pace and tons of off ball movement give them a watch if you haven’t yet!
The Reedbound 