I figured it is time to continue my culture war against the NFL. One of the primary arguments that I hear in favor of the NFL over the NBA is that it’s much easier to rebuild in the NFL. The argument goes that you can have a successful NFL rebuild following this formula:
Year 1: You sell off all of your assets for draft picks, you hire a new coach in the offseason, have a good draft, select a quarterback
Year 2: You let the guys show what they are made of, ‘develop’ the young QB, help the coach to establish a culture and hope to win some games
Year 3: In the offseason you sign a few big free agents and you are ready to go as a contender
And teams follow this format all of the time. The Bears did it with Mitch Trubisky except they made the big free agency move before year 2 and grabbed Khalil Mack. Hell, the Bears are doing it again right now by selling off their players for picks and hoping to have a big draft and free agency so that they can contend with Justin Fields next year. It’s what the Jets were trying to do with Zach Wilson, the Bengals with Burrow, the Jags with Trevor Lawerence and the Eagles with Jalen Hurts.
The main idea with this rebuild theory is that your team can quickly go from being crummy to a contender in just a few years. Supporters of this theory also argue that in the NFL there is a much greater chance that a random team can come out of nowhere and contend for the title. NFL fans bemoan how superstar driven the NBA is and argue that in the NFL you can be a contender even if you don’t have a superstar. I am going to argue that the NFL is just as much a superstar driven league as the NFL but fans only believe otherwise because the shortened schedule makes them delusional.
You Need a Top 10 Player to Win in the NFL
The NFL is a superstar driven league. To evaluate this we are going to use the NFL top 100 to determine who is a ‘top 10 player’. It is a bit of a flawed metric but it’s about as objective as we can get. The rankings started in 2011 so we will begin there:
2011: Packers 31 vs Steelers 25
Top 10 players: Aaron Rodgers (11th but then shot to number 1 in the offseason)
2012: Giants 21* vs. Patriots 17
Top 10 players: Tom Brady (4) and Jason Pierre Paul (24)
2013: Ravens 34* vs 49ers 31
Top 10 players: Aldon Smith (7) and Patrick Willis (10) with Ray Rice (13) and Ed Reed (18)
2014: Seahawks 43 vs Broncos 8
Top 10 Players: Richard Sherman (7), Marshawn (14), Earl Thomas (17) and Peyton Manning (1)
2015: Patriots 28 vs Seahawks 24
Top 10 Players: Tom Brady (3), Rob Gronkowski (10), Marshawn Lynch (9), Richard Sherman (11)
2016: Broncos 24* vs Panthers 10
Top 10 Players: Cam Newton (1), Luke Kuechly (7), Josh Norman (11), Von Miller (15)
2017: Patriots 34 vs Falcons 28
Top 10 Players: Tom Brady (1), Julio Jones (3), Matt Ryan (10)
2018: Eagles 41* vs Patriots 33
Top 10 Players: Tom Brady (1), Carson Wentz (3),
2019: Patriots 13 vs Rams 3
Top 10 Players: Tom Brady (6), Aaron Donald (1), Todd Gurley (5)
2020: Chiefs 31 vs 9ers 20
Top 10 Players: Patrick Mahomes (4), George Kittle (7), Nick Bosa (17), Travis Kelce (18)
2021: Bucs 31 vs Chiefs 9
Top 10 Players: Patrick Mahomes (1), Travis Kelce (5), Tom Brady (7),
2022: Rams 23 vs Bengals 20
Top 10 Players: Aaron Donald (2), Cooper Kupp (4), Joe Burrow (21)
In the last 11 years, every single superbowl featured a top 10 player with the exception of 2011 where Rodgers was the 11th best player. The eventual champions had at least 1 top 10 player 9 of 11 times (assuming you count Rodgers as top 10). The only exceptions to the rule were the infamous 2012 Giants with Jason Piere-Paul as their highest ranked player at 24 and the 2013 Ravens who had Ray Rice and Ed Reed at 13th and 18th. Additionally, every team except for those Giants and Ravens (and the Eagles who won it with Foles) had a top tier quarterback. The evidence is pretty clear: if you want to make and win the Super Bowl, you need a top 10 player and/or a future hall of fame quarterback.
The tracks through the previous decade as well. The following quarterbacks won the Super Bowl: Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer (Ravens), Tom Brady, Brad Johnson (Bucs), Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Drew Brees. I was not in an intellectual place to tell you who was a top 10 player for those Ravens and Bucs runs but I do know those are historically great defenses with multiple hall of farmers on that side of the ball. It is extremely rare to win at the highest level in the NFL without a top player, that much is obvious.
Now, let’s run the same experiment except for the last 11 years of the NBA. The ESPN rank is horrible and I suspect it is intentionally bad to drive clicks to the website. Instead, I will be using All-NBA first and second teams as a substitute. Here goes:
2011: Mavericks* vs Heat (4-2)
Top 10 players: LeBron James (1st), Dewyane Wade (2nd) and note: Dirk was also not 3rd team
2012: Heat vs Thunder (4-1)
Top 10 players: Kevin Durant (1st), LeBron James (1st), Russell Westbrook (2nd) and Wade was 3rd
2013: Heat vs Spurs (4-3)
Top 10 players: LeBron James (1st), Tony Parker (2nd), Tim Duncan (1st) and Wade was 3rd
2014: Spurs vs Heat (4-1)
Top 10 players: LeBron James (1st), Tony Parker (2nd)
2015: Warriors vs Cavs (4-2)
Top 10 players: LeBron James (1st), Stephen Curry (1st) and Kyrie+Klay were 3rd
2016: Cavs vs Warriors (4-3)
Top 10 players: LeBron James (1st), Stephen Curry (1st), Draymond Green (2nd) and Klay was 3rd
2017: Warriors vs Cavs (4-1)
Top 10 players: LeBron James (1st), Stephen Curry (2nd) and Draymond was 3rd
2018: Warriors vs Cavs (4-0)
Top 10 players: LeBron James (1st), Kevin Durant (1st) and Steph was 3rd
2019: Raptors vs Warriors (4-2)
Top 10 players: Kevin Durant (2nd), Kawhi Leonard (2nd)
2020: Lakers vs Heat* (4-2)
Top 10 players: LeBron James (1st), Anthony Davis (1st) and Jimmy was 3rd
2021: Bucks vs Suns* (4-2)
Top 10 players: Giannis (1st)
2022: Warriors vs Celtics (4-2)
Top 10 players: Tatum (1st) and Steph (2nd)
In the last 11 years the only NBA team to win the finals without a top 10 player was the 2011 Mavericks with Dirk. Of teams that made it to the finals and lost, the 2021 Suns and 2020 Heat were the only teams without a top 10 player. From 2000-2010 you see pretty much the same thing. The Pistons were the only team to win the championship without a bonafide superstar (although, Ben Wallace was actually second team All-NBA the year they won). No one really expected the Heat to win with Wade and Shaq but they were second and first team, respectively.
Don’t be mistaken, I fully agree that the NBA is a superstar driven league. Rather, I am attempting to show that the NFL is just as star driven as the NBA. The finals of both sports would essentially be the same over the last decade if Giannis didn’t go nuclear from the free throw line in game 6 and Devin Booker didn’t break his nose. Additionally, it’s pretty commonly accepted that both the Ravens and Giants had insane strokes of luck– those are exceptions to the rule.
Why Do We All Believe This Myth of NFL Parity?
The answer is quite simple: NFL teams don’t play very many games which creates a high amount of variance. Let’s imagine, for a second, that the NBA regular season was also only 17 games long. This is what the standings in the NBA looked like after about 17 games:
In the Eastern Conference, the major success stories would be about how the Pacers and Wizards had come out of nowhere and shocked the NBA with their insane performances. Meanwhile people would be talking about what a disappointment the Bulls and Heat are and rumors would be swarming around both teams blowing it up. In reality, no one really believes in the Pacers or the Wizards, we know there will be regression. Also, most people think that the Heat are going to figure it out. There is more dispute over the Bulls and I will get into that some other time. But my essential argument is that we are a lot more like the Dame-CJ Blazers than we are like the Wizards but I digress.
In the Western Conference, everyone would be buzzing about the Utah Jazz and their meteoric rise and how they are championship contenders. The Warriors, on the other hand, would be the laughing stock of the league and it would have been clear that the Draymond punch screwed them for the entire year. Instead, both of these teams have regressed towards the mean. The Jazz lost 5 games in a row and the Warriors are now .500 and starting to look like themselves again.
In reality, we see the exact same thing in the NFL but because the season ends at 17 games we end up buying the myth that our shitty but over-performing team is actually a contender or good. The two biggest shocks of this NFL season have been the Giants and the Eagles but guess what? The Giants and Eagles had the easiest strength of schedule coming into the season, like literally first and second. Now, people are not really talking about the Giants as superbowl contenders but people are talking about the Eagles. In reality, I think the Eagles are a fundamentally unserious team. Their only ‘good’ wins are against the Vikings in week 2 and the Cowboys with Cooper Rush at the helm.
Now there are a lot of ways to determine whether teams of the Cowboys-Vikings-Eagles caliber are actually contenders but I think looking at their top tier talent is as good as any method. For example, I think you could make the case that Micah Parsons and Justin Jefferson are top 10 players this season but I don’t really know who you would make that case for on the Eagles. Jason Kelce? AJ Brown? I’m not buying it. This method of identifying top 10 or fringe 10 players actually speaks very well to my beliefs about contenders and pretenders this year in the NFL.
Contenders:
49ers: Fred Warner, Kittle, Deebo, CMC, Trent Williams, Bosa (all have been in the top 25)
Bills: I don’t need to say anything
Chiefs: Ibid
Cowboys: Parsons
Dolphins: Tyreek Hill is HIM
Bengals: Burrow and Chase
Pretenders:
Giants: Saquon??? He has fallen off
Vikings: JJeff is probably top 10 but I do not think they are pretenders
Eagles: See above
Ravens: Lamar is not top 10 this year but I would hear an argument for Justin Tucker
Titans: Derrick Henry is having a great season but I don’t have him top 10
Chargers: Herbert is not there yet sadly
Conclusion
The reality is that the NFL is a superstar driven league, just like the NBA but we love to believe that the NFL is this egalitarian place where the team with the best ‘locker room culture’ can come out of nowhere and contend for the title. The evidence does show that the NFL is a little bit less superstar driven than the NBA is but it’s a lot closer than you think. If you don’t have Brady, Mahomes or an all-time defender (Sherman and Donald) chances are that you are a fundamentally unserious team playing dress up as a contender. If I were a GM or the friend of an NFL owner I would recommend following the Rams formula: hoard superstars and cross your fingers that you don’t get screwed by injuries. The NBA meta has been to hoard superstars for a long time and often to the degree that it irritates fans but NFL teams need to realize they should start doing the same.
The Reedbound 